Funding measures continue to occupy energy in both the Senate and the House

Welcome back to the Golden Apple. This week, funding measures continue to occupy energy in both the Senate and the House, as the former works on a reconciliation measure to fund ICE and border patrol, and the latter pushes forward on appropriations measures.

Financial Services Committee Marks Up Beneficial Ownership Repeal: On Tuesday, the Financial Services Committee will hold a markup of four bills, most notably, one to repeal the Corporate Transparency Act. The CTA, which passed as part of the 2021 NDAA, requires companies to disclose their beneficial ownership information to FinCEN with the goal of better preventing fraud, money laundering, and illicit finance. Chairman French Hill (R-AR) has long been opposed to the concept and the framework. However, the bill is largely symbolic, as the measure is highly unlikely to gain 60 votes in the Senate.

Banking Committee Hears Warsh Testimony: On Tuesday, the Senate Banking Committee will hold a nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh to serve as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh has previously critiqued the current direction of the Fed and has supported smaller balance sheets, lower interest rates, and reduced staffing. However, lowering interest rates will require some clever justification, as other Trump appointees have noted the impact of the Iran War on inflation. In addition, Senator Thom Tillis has not dropped his pledge to block any Fed nominee until the Trump administration ceases its investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell, which Tillis characterizes as unjustified and a threat to the agency’s independence. 

Budget Reconciliation Updates: Senate Budget Chair Lindsay Graham (R-SC) is expected to release text for the so-called “skinny” reconciliation budget resolution within the next day. An initial vote could be held as early as Tuesday. The bill would address funding for ICE and border patrol, but will not take on additional issues. Senate Republican leadership hope this strategy will allow a swifter passage. The strategy is not without detractors: some factions of the Republican conference disagree with the approach and believe they should not pass up an opportunity to use the budget reconciliation process to achieve other party goals.

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Massachusetts:  Suffolk University (for the Boston Globe; 4/9-13; 500 MA likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) released their new Massachusetts statewide poll and found little has changed in the US Senate Democratic primary. According to the poll results, Sen. Ed Markey continues to lead US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), this time by a relatively consistent 47-30% margin. The Massachusetts primary is not until September 1st, so much can still happen in this intra-party contest.

Michigan:  The Democratic Senate primary, which won’t be decided until August 4th, is already red hot. The Data for Progress research organization released the results of their latest survey (for the Zeteo news site; 4/2-8; 515 MI likely Democratic primary voters; online) and found a literal three-way tie, 23-22-22%, among US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. 

Fundraising is hot, as well. The latest Federal Election Commission reports are public for the 1st Quarter of 2026, and we see Sen. McMorrow having raised $8.6 million with $3.7 million cash-on-hand. Dr. El-Sayed has raised a comparable $7.6 million, with $2.5 million remaining to be spent. Rep. Stevens has attracted $6.8 million in campaign receipts, with $3.0 million in her account. 

Each will spend most of their money just to win the party nomination. For his part, presumed Republican nominee Mike Rogers has raised $7.6 million and holds $4.2 million, most of which he can hold for the general election. The general election rating for this race is: toss-up.

Texas:  Two new polls were released in the extremely tight Texas US Senate Republican runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, and the results are identical. Peek Insights conducted its survey for Texans for a Conservative Majority, a Super PAC that supports Sen. Cornyn (4/6-9; 800 TX likely voters), and the co/efficient polling firm (4/11-14; 1,143 TX likely Republican runoff voters; text and live interview), in an independent release, each find Sen. Cornyn leading AG Paxton by a narrow 44-43 percent. 

The Texas runoff is scheduled for May 26th, so the candidates still have weeks to make their case to the Republican electorate.  In terms of available funds, Sen. Cornyn’s campaign reports just over $5 million cash-on-hand, while Mr. Paxton holds $2.1 million.

HOUSE

AL-1:  The race to replace US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), who is running for the state’s open US Senate seat, is getting close. Rep. Moore’s successor will come from the Republican primary since the 1st District is safely red. PI Polling (for the Alabama Daily News; 3/31-4/2; 505 AL-1 likely Republican primary voters) released the results of their latest 1st District survey and finds former Congressman Jerry Carl’s early lead dissipating. The PI ballot test sees Rep. Carl leading state Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) by only a 23-19% clip.

CA-11:  More new survey information in the race to replace retiring former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) was released during the week.  Data for Progress (for the Saikat Chakrabarti campaign; 4/3-8; 537 CA-11 likely jungle primary voters; online) projects that state Sen. Scott Wiener’s (D-San Francisco) early lead continues to get smaller. 

The ballot test sees Sen. Wiener still leading the contest, 33-28-13%, over former Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) campaign manager and investor Saikat Chakrabarti, and San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan (D). 

Under the California qualifying election system, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation and percentage attained, will advance to the general election. It is very likely that two of these three Democrats will compete in November.

CA-14:  US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore/East San Francisco Bay Area) exited the Governor’s race and resigned his seat in the US House due to sexual assault accusations. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) wasted no time in scheduling the special election to replace Rep. Swalwell. 

The all-party primary election is scheduled for June 16th, just two weeks after the California statewide qualifying election. If no candidate receives majority support in the initial election, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will advance to a special general election on August 18th.

FL-20:  The House Ethics Committee has scheduled a session for next Tuesday to decide what sanctions will be recommended to the full House concerning Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar). The committee has already found her in violation of 25 different ethics rules. She is also under federal indictment for stealing COVID funds and misusing government administration money. Her federal trial has now been postponed until February. It is possible that the Committee members could recommend that Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick be expelled from the House.

MN-2:  Republican Tyler Kistner, who has twice run unsuccessfully in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, has withdrawn from the 2026 campaign. Mr. Kistner announced that his Marine Reserve unit has been deployed overseas in September, meaning he would miss the election campaign's prime time.  The only Republican in the open race is state Sen. Eric Pratt (R-Prior Lake), but candidate filing does not end until June 2nd for the August 11th primary, so others could join the field. Incumbent US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is running for the US Senate.

NV-3:  President Trump has joined Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) in endorsing music and electronic gaming entrepreneur Marty O’Donnell for the 3rd District Republican nomination. The eventual GOP nominee will then challenge four-term US Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) in what promises to be a close general election. In 2024, President Trump carried the swing 3rd CD by the slightest of margins, 49.5 – 48.8 percent.

NJ-11:  As expected, Democratic Socialist Analilia Mejia won the 11th District special election, easily defeating Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway (R) with an approximate 60-40% victory margin from a projected turnout of just over 138,000 voters. Ms. Mejia replaces Democrat Mikie Sherrill, who resigned after being elected Governor in November of 2025.

NM-2:  Former Drug Enforcement Agency contractor Jesse Orozco ended his congressional campaign, thus leaving the Republican field to Marine Corps veteran Greg Cunningham for the June 2nd primary election. Mr. Cunningham will challenge two-term US Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) in what will be a competitive general election in the state’s southern congressional district.

NY-4:  Town of Hempstead official Jeanine Driscoll is the Republicans’ new candidate to challenge US Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Center). Valley Stream Mayor John DeGrace was the original party choice for the seat, but it was believed he was only a placeholder for former Congressman Anthony D’Esposito, who is now the Inspector General for the US Department of Labor. 

The switch to D’Esposito did not happen, so now Ms. Driscoll, with Mr. D’Esposito’s endorsement, will prepare her challenge campaign. Rep. Gillen is favored for re-election, but the race will be competitive.

OH-1:  President Trump endorsed Air Force veteran Eric Conroy over Dr. Steven Erbeck, DDS, in the May 5th Republican primary during the week. The winner will face Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) in a much more favorable Republican district under the new Ohio congressional map. The OH-1 contest will become a national campaign because it is a seat that the Republicans have a chance to flip from a Democratic incumbent. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the OH-1 partisan lean is now 47.5D - 51.6R.

TX-23:  Immediately after Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) announced his resignation from Congress, US Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), who was also involved in an extramarital affair that resulted in the woman's suicide, resigned his congressional office. Mr. Gonzales was forced into a runoff with business owner Brandon Herrera in the March 3rd Republican primary, but then conceded the race. Both men resigned to end the threat of expulsion that each faced.

GOVERNOR

California:  The Governor’s race took a major turn when perhaps the leading Democratic candidate, US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore/East San Francisco Bay Area) withdrew from the race and then resigned from Congress because of sexual assault accusations. The remaining candidates are now in a state of flux.

Emerson College released the first post-Swalwell exit poll (4/14-15; 1,000 CA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found former Fox News host Steve Hilton holding the lead with 17% support. Following are Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and billionaire Tom Steyer (D) at 14% apiece, ex-HHS Secretary and former CA Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) and former US Rep. Katie Porter (D) at 10% apiece, and a newcomer, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (D) on the board with 5 percent support. 

Messrs. Becerra and Mahan are the candidates who gained the most since the Swalwell departure. Expect a dogfight jungle primary to occur between now and the June 2nd vote. The top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation and percentage attained, advance to the general election. The only realistic Republican chance to win the general election is for both Hilton and Bianco to qualify.  President Trump endorsing Mr. Hilton ironically, probably makes a second Republican qualifying an even more difficult proposition.

Colorado:  Pastor Victor Marx and state Rep. Scott Bottoms (R-Colorado Springs) both qualified for the gubernatorial ballot through delegate votes at the Colorado Republican state Assembly last weekend. To earn a ballot slot, a candidate must receive at least 30% of the delegate vote. State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County) has submitted petitions to the Secretary of State and awaits confirmation that she has qualified for a gubernatorial ballot position. 

None of the other candidates who failed to qualify at the state convention, including former Congressman Greg Lopez, filed petitions. Therefore, they could still access the ballot as an Independent candidate and have until July 9th to complete the filing process.

Michigan:  Impact Research (for the Benson campaign; 3/23-29; 800 MI likely voters) finds Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) posting a 40-36-20% over US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) and Independent Mike Duggan, the former three-term Mayor of Detroit. Expect the candidates in this serious three-way race to routinely trade polling positions. It is probable that all three will advance to the general election. The winner replaces term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D).

Nebraska:   Public Policy Polling (for the Walz campaign; 4/6-7; 670 NE registered voters; live interview & text) released their latest statewide Nebraska gubernatorial poll. The results find Gov. Jim Pillen (R) is holding a tightening 38-33-12% advantage over former state Senator Lynne Walz (D) and Legalize Marijuana Now candidate Rick Beard. Polling may get close in this race, but the most likely scenario is for Gov. Pillen to pull away in the campaign’s final stage and comfortably win a second term.

STATE AND LOCAL

New Hampshire:  The Granite State holds one of the latest statewide primaries in the nation. This year, it will be September 8th, but it is likely the last time we will see New Hampshire voting at such a late date. The legislature has passed a bill and Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) says she will sign it, that will move the primary elections, other than those for president, to the second Tuesday in June beginning in the 2028 election cycle.